A third of the year is behind us. The future price increase is unpredictable. Nobody can guarantee that the government will provide options for foreigners to buy property. Nevertheless, the figures speak for themselves.
As for buying a home for overseas nationals, there’s no cause for concern. No one will kill the goose that lays the golden egg. Introducing a house-buying ban for foreigners would be highly unprofitable, no matter how much the opposition is insisting on it.
Let us consider the above figures.
Content:
- Statistics on the key provinces
- Statistics on the 30 most sought-after provinces in terms of home purchases (by number of transactions in descending order, including April data)
- Summary
- Sales to foreigners
- Dynamics in comparison to previous months
- Results and conclusions
Statistics on the key provinces
As per the TÜIK, 85,652 residential real estate units were sold in Turkey in April. Nationwide, home sales fell by 19% in April compared to the previous month and 36% in comparison to the same month last year.
New building sales fell in January-April 2023 by 15% against the same period last year and reached 110,859 units; secondary property sales dropped by 20% to 258,008 units.
More detailed April statistics (different transaction categories) can be seen here.
However, the decrease in the number of transactions deserves little attention. On average, the country's annual price increase was 132%, despite the smashing blow to the economy from the earthquake in Kahramanmaraş in February.
The national average unit price rose to TL 2,358,200 (Turkish liras).
Statistics on the 30 most sought-after provinces in terms of home purchases (by number of transactions in descending order, including April data)
| Number of deals in April 2023 | Share of total sales (%) | Average price per m2 (TL) | Average cost per unit (TL) | Change in price over the last year (%) | Return on investment (year) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul | 13,944 | 16% | 28,057 | 3,252,906 | 120% | 18 |
| Ankara | 10,000 | 12% | 13,622 | 1,770,860 | 138% | 14 |
| Izmir | 4,960 | 6% | 23,306 | 2,897,750 | 127% | 19 |
| Antalya | 4,908 | 6% | 25,983 | 3,091,440 | 139% | 17 |
| Bursa | 3,015 | 4% | 15,621 | 2,108,835 | 128% | 20 |
| Kocaeli | 2,435 | 3% | 15,474 | 2,011,620 | 142% | 20 |
| Mersin | 2,277 | 3% | 15,213 | 2,129,820 | 121% | 18 |
| Tekirdag | 2,218 | 3% | 12,805 | 1,728,675 | 129% | 18 |
| Konya | 2,030 | 2% | 11,338 | 1,814,080 | 117% | 18 |
| Aydın | 1,992 | 2% | 22,937 | 3,093,930 | 87% | 26 |
| Balikesir | 1,966 | 2% | 18,636 | 2,235,480 | 107% | 24 |
| Gaziantep | 1,848 | 2% | 11,722 | 1,805,188 | 76% | 18 |
| Kayseri | 1,582 | 2% | 8,870 | 1,463,550 | 94% | 22 |
| Eskişehir | 1,524 | 2% | 12,976 | 1,622,000 | 121% | 19 |
| Mugla | 1,501 | 2% | 38,565 | 4,958,200 | 97% | 18 |
| Sakarya | 1,469 | 2% | 14,280 | 1,713,600 | 142% | 19 |
| Samsun | 1,451 | 2% | 14,252 | 1,924,020 | 121% | 23 |
| Manisa | 1,382 | 2% | 12,911 | 1,613,875 | 113% | 19 |
| Adana | 1,369 | 2% | 14,030 | 2,244,800 | 111% | 19 |
| Denizli | 1,269 | 1% | 14,761 | 2,140,345 | 132% | 21 |
| Şanlıurfa | 1,114 | 1% | 9,319 | 1,584,230 | 89% | 24 |
| Diyarbakir | 1,016 | 1% | 10,919 | 1,747,040 | 91% | 22 |
| Kahramanmarash | 796 | 1% | 11,435 | 1,955,385 | 122% | 18 |
| Yalova | 755 | 1% | 15,688 | 1,964,000 | 133% | 20 |
| Elazığ | 711 | 1% | 7,935 | 1,348,950 | 122% | 29 |
| Canakkale | 703 | 1% | 19701 | 2,285,316 | 123% | 24 |
| Erzurum | 693 | 1% | 6,955 | 1,126,710 | 108% | 24 |
| Ordu | 660 | 1% | 13,087 | 1,766,745 | 132% | 25 |
| Afonkarahisar | 643 | 1% | 11,747 | 1,468,375 | 128% | 25 |
| Trabzon | 633 | 1% | 13,147 | 2,103,520 | 142% | 25 |
Summary
- Trabzon, Kocaeli and Sakarya were the provinces with the highest annual increase in value: 142% each. Ankara was only behind by 4% (138%).
- Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir were the top three leaders in transaction volumes.
- The average payback period for housing investments was 16 years.
- The quickest payback time was in the Ankara province (14 years); the longest at the moment is in Elazığ (29 years) and Aydın (26 years); Ordu, Afyonkarahisar and Trabzon have an anal payback period of 25 years.
- The most expensive square metres of residential real estate at present is in the territory of Mugla (with its resorts of Bodrum, Fethiye, Marmaris and others): TL 38,565 per square metre. Runner-up Istanbul is just TL 10,000 behind and charges 28,057 per 1 square metre. Antalya occupies third place with TL 25,983 per square metre.
- The cheapest "metres" of the top 30 participants are in Erzurum (TL 6,955), Elazig (TL 7,935): Kayseri (TL 8,870) and Sanliurfa (TL 9,319): they fall within the "threshold" of TL 10,000.
- The highest unit price was once again in Mugla (TL 4,958,200) and Istanbul (TL 3,252,906); one of the lowest-ranking participants was in Erzurum (TL 1,126,710).
As for the three provinces surrounding Turkey's largest megacities, as per the Endeksa analytical portal, at the end of April, the annual growth in Istanbul housing prices was 120%, the median selling price per square metre of residential property was over TL 28,000, the average cost per lot was almost TL 3,253,000.
Housing in Ankara increased by 138%; the selling price per square metre of housing was TL 13,622 and the average cost per unit reached TL 1,770,860.
In Izmir, the annual increase in value at the end of April 2023 was 127%, the average selling price per square metre of housing was TL 23,306 and the average price per residence was TL 2,897,750.
Conclusions regarding the top 3 provinces in terms of price increases:
Housing prices in Trabzon have increased by 142% over the last year, with the average selling price of housing at TL 13,147 per square metre and the average price per residential unit at TL 2,103,520.
In Kocaeli (also +142%), the average price per square metre was TL 15,474, and the one per housing unit is TL 2,011,620.
In Sakarye (the same +142%, the "record holders" provinces match each other stride for stride), the average price per square metre of housing was TL 14,280 and the average cost of one residential lot was TL 1,713,600.
Sales to foreigners
Our readers may be more interested in the statistics on transactions of the citizens of other states.
In April, this index decreased by 25% compared to the previous month and by 60% compared to April 2022, reaching 2,557 units.
Iran and Ukraine are the leading countries for the number of transactions: 377 and 136 sales, respectively.
The 20 states whose citizens bought the most residential property in Turkey in April 2023 are listed here, as well as the exact number of real estate acquired.
As for the most lucrative provinces for foreign buyers, Antalya was first in sales in April: 1,024 lots for the month.
Istanbul was the second, with 792 transactions and Mersin was the third, with 186 deals.
Moreover, here are the exclusive statistics from our portal. The top 10 provinces where foreigners bought the most housing in the fourth month of the year are:
- 4th place - Ankara (90 lots)
- 5th place - Yalova (64 lots)
- 6th place - Izmir (54 lots)
- 7th place - Edirne (47 lots)
- 8th Place - Mugla (41 lots)
- 9th Place - Aydın (37 lots)
- 10th place - Kocaeli (36 lots)
Dynamics in comparison to previous months
The March 2023 housing price index was up 5.4% from February and 132.8% from March 2022.
At the same time, there was a 141.5% increase in February relative to February of the previous year. Moreover, there was a 153.1% increase in January relative to January a year earlier. Thus, there was a slight slowdown in the growth rate of residential real estate prices.
However, the Central Bank of Turkey warned that the February and March 2023 index might be inaccurate due to insufficient data on several provinces (such as Adiyaman, Malatya, Hatay, Kahramanmarash and Osmaniye) because of the earthquake.
Nevertheless, the average housing price in the country exceeded TL 2,000,000; the average price per square metre in March exceeded TL 21,777 and the average cost of so-called standard-sized housing (100 m2) in Turkey was TL 2,177,700.
In Istanbul, the average price for 100 square metres of living space was TL 3,373,000; in Ankara, it was TL 1,600,000 and the annual increase in March was 130.9% and 142%, respectively.
Results and conclusions
Over the past four years (through April 2023), Turkey has seen a 652% increase in its house price index. The Habertürk newspaper columnist Abdurrahman Yıldırım explains that the rise in residential property values continues despite the decline in the sales rates. Moreover, the February earthquake increased its speed (the price increase in March was 5.4%; in February, it was 8.4%).
The columnist reminded us that there was a 35.6% increase in September 2021. That is how much higher housing prices rose in the previous 12 months. A year later, in September 2022, this figure was 189.1%.
However, when adjusted for inflation, the actual increase in the cost of residential real estate was 82.8% for one and a half years — from September 2021 to spring 2023. But Yildirim stressed that this was still a tremendous dynamic.
After the bleak winter events, migration began to influence the market: people moved to less earthquake-prone areas from the most dangerous regions. They mainly chose those located on the continent, not by the sea. This trend provoked an increase in the prices in the northern provinces, whereas previously, the southern regions were more expensive. "For the first time, the red zones on the map, which mark the highest price increases, have shifted from south to north," Yıldırım explained.
Well, the impact of the "election effect" is now being seen. Here are the conclusions made by the observer:
- Although the presidential election was postponed until the second round, the current government participated in the National Assembly elections. During its rule, housing, construction and real estate were the most popular businesses over the past 15-20 years;
- Turkey has ranked first in the world for the last three consecutive years in terms of rising home prices;
- The housing price index grew from 107.6% in January 2019 to 809.3% in March 2023. The increase in 4 years and two months reached 652 percent;
- Consumer inflation over the same period was 219 percent. When adjusted, the actual increase in home prices came close to 136 percent. This meets the definition of a “housing price growth of more than 100 percent in real terms over five years."
- Since the first day after the election, a new movement and recovery in the real estate market has already begun. However, this does not guarantee that prices for houses in Turkey will continue to rise as there is always the risk that Turkey could be affected by a global crisis or face its own crisis.
This threat is real. But if you take the real estate situation in the world in general and, in Turkey, in particular, in the long term, real estate has consistently risen in price and is likely to continue to grow. So the specific dynamics are the main point.