Kahramanmaraş Earthquake: Figures and “Investment” Conclusions

Kahramanmaraş Earthquake: Figures and “Investment” Conclusions

Murat Kurum, Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, reported that 387,346 buildings were inspected to assess damage in a number of provinces, close to the epicenter in less than 10 days after the earthquake. Of those, 50,576 buildings were identified as requiring urgent demolition, and 279,655 buildings sustained slight damage. This was published on the real estate website Emlakkulisi.

The small city of Erzin, which was practically not affected, stands out against this backdrop. The Turkish media highlighted that this is mostly thanks to the efforts of its mayor Ökkeş Elmasoğlu. The mayor became known as an incorruptible fighter against unauthorized construction, he would stop any construction work that does not meet the requirements and standards. As a result, he has made many enemies. However, one should not discount the fact that Erzin itself has a favorable location: just under the city, there is a dense layer of rock. As you might guess, it is much more resistant to tremors.

Content:

That said, all other mayors should follow Ökkeş Elmasoğlu’s example and control construction so it is tightened at the national level. In particular, as a result of a recent audit, warrants were issued for the arrest of more than a hundred employees of development companies, who could be directly or indirectly responsible for the illegal or low-quality construction that led to such great losses.

The authorities are also identifying the exact age of buildings so that the future urban development plan takes this into account.

Murat Kurum said, “According to our findings so far, there are 50,576 buildings that need to be demolished urgently. 279,655 buildings are slightly damaged or undamaged.” And, of course, massive housing construction will begin in the affected areas very soon: the government has announced that it plans to provide those in need with a roof over their heads within the next year.

Meanwhile, investigation and calculations are still in progress.

As part of the damage assessment completed by mid-February 2023, 1,856,864 residences located in 387,346 buildings were inspected. In the earlier mentioned 50,576 buildings that cannot be restored, 224,923 residential lots will be demolished.

It was also established that 71,174 residences in 11,114 buildings have moderate damage, 640,131 (in 99,300 buildings) have slight damage, and 762,627 residential units in 180,355 buildings remained intact.

Data by province

All figures as of February 15, 2023:

Adana

Adana: damage was assessed for 106,474 residences in 5,797 buildings. A number of 1,074 residences in 46 houses were found to be severely damaged and destroyed, requiring urgent demolition. Another 5,755 residential lots in 235 houses were moderately damaged; 31,465 residences in 1,342 buildings sustained slight damage. Finally, 66,074 residential units in 3,913 houses were not damaged.

Adıyaman

Adıyaman: 102,932 residential units in 28,766 houses were assessed for damage. Of these, 28,265 (in 6,108 buildings) were severely damaged and require demolition; 10,195 (in 2,285 buildings) were moderately damaged; 34,169 (in 9,859 buildings) were slightly damaged; and 16,053 (in 7,060 buildings) are undamaged.

Diyarbakır

Diyarbakır: 262,702 independent units in 24,314 houses were assessed for damage. A number of 6,069 (in 520 buildings) are to be demolished; 9,199 (in 611 buildings) were moderately damaged; 76,498 (in 5,367 buildings) were slightly damaged; 159,827 (in 15,471 buildings) are undamaged.

Elazığ

Elazığ: 24,734 residential units in 2,488 houses were assessed for damage. A total of 3,675 (in 587 buildings) are to be demolished; 12,204 (in 1,118 buildings) were slightly damaged; 7,371 (in 541 buildings) are undamaged.

Gaziantep

Gaziantep: 487,814 residences in 130,331 buildings were assessed for damage. Of these, 27,987 (in 11,922 buildings) were severely damaged and required immediate demolition; 14,552 (in 3,803 buildings) were moderately damaged; 150,472 (in 25,187 buildings) were slightly damaged; 252,147 (in 71,694 buildings) are undamaged.

Hatay

Hatay: 183,291 independent units in 49,470 buildings were assessed for damage. A total of 54,468 (in 10,911 buildings) were severely damaged and demolished; 13,038 (in 1,812 buildings) were moderately damaged; 49,564 (in 13,162 buildings) were slightly damaged; 56,766 (in 21,051 buildings) are undamaged.

Kahramanmaraş

Kahramanmaraş: 222,863 independent units in 57,087 buildings were assessed for damage. A total of 53,227 (in 10,777 buildings) are to be demolished; 5,924 (in 837 buildings) were moderately damaged; 86,759 (in 16,824 buildings) were slightly damaged; and 52,260 lots (in 20,746 buildings) are undamaged.

Kilis

Kilis: 23,901 residential units in 3,748 buildings were assessed for damage. Of these, 905 (in 585 buildings) are to be demolished; 944 (in 110 buildings) were moderately damaged; 13,623 (in 1,523 buildings) were slightly damaged; 7,897 residences (in 1,284 houses) are undamaged.

Malatya

Malatya: 152,688 residential units in 25,311 buildings were assessed for damage. A total of 38,568 (in 6,599 buildings) are to be demolished; 5,011 (in 611 buildings) were moderately damaged; 52,102 (in 7,138 buildings) were slightly damaged; 28,152 (in 5,474 buildings) are undamaged.

Osmaniye

Osmaniye: 91,999 residential units in 28,317 buildings were assessed for damage. A total of 8,491 (in 2,122 buildings) are to be demolished; 1,717 (in 218 buildings) were moderately damaged; 36,518 (in 6,925 buildings) were slightly damaged; and 41,839 residences (in 17,529 buildings) are undamaged.

Şanlıurfa

Şanlıurfa: 197,466 residential units in 31,717 buildings were assessed for damage. A total of 2,194 (in 399 buildings) are identified as severely damaged and are to be demolished; 4,098 (in 463 buildings) were moderately damaged; 96,757 (in 10,855 buildings) were slightly damaged; 74,241 (in 15,592 buildings) are undamaged.

Kahramanmaraş Earthquake: Figures and «Investment» Conclusions

Age of houses

How old were the buildings in the affected provinces in that seismic zone?

According to TÜİK, at least half of the houses in eight provinces affected by the earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 with the epicenter in Kahramanmaraş were built after 2001.

Analysts released data on the average age of the buildings in Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, Gaziantep, Osmaniye, Malatya, Adıyaman, Adana, Diyarbakır, Kilis, and Şanlıurfa, that is, those places where the greatest damage was recorded.

Here are the figures:

Şanlıurfa:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 5.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 18.5%;
  • 2001 and later – 61.0%;
  • date of construction unknown – 14.9%.

Diyarbakır:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 6.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 26.26%;
  • 2001 and later – 58.1%;
  • date of construction unknown – 8.8%.

Kahramanmaraş:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 11.7%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 26.9%;
  • 2001 and later – 58.1%;
  • date of construction unknown – 3.3%.

Adıyaman:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 8.7%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 23.6%;
  • 2001 and later – 52.3%;
  • date of construction unknown – 15.4%.

Kilis:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 11.2%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 21.7%;
  • 2001 and later – 52.3%;
  • date of construction unknown – 14.9%.

Gaziantep:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 6.6%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 25.9%;
  • 2001 and later – 51.6%;
  • date of construction unknown – 15.9%.

Hatay:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 13.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 32.6%;
  • 2001 and later – 50.0%;
  • date of construction unknown – 3.9%.

Malatya:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 14.0%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 28.1%;
  • 2001 and later – 48.4%;
  • date of construction unknown – 9.5%.

Osmaniye:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 10.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 25.7%;
  • 2001 and later – 46.5%;
  • date of construction unknown – 17.3%.

Adana:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 13.0%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 34.8%;
  • 2001 and later – 38.7%;
  • date of construction unknown – 13.5%.

Kahramanmaraş Earthquake: Figures and «Investment» Conclusions

“Before and after 2001” ranking

Also published are the Turkish provinces with the most buildings built after 2001, that is, according to the new standards (at least they should have been).

The data is as follows:

Bingöl:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 7.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 17.2%;
  • 2001 and later – 69.8%;
  • date of construction unknown – 5.5%.

Van:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 4.3%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 16.8%;
  • 2001 and later – 68.1%;
  • date of construction unknown – 10.8%.

Şırnak:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 2.6%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 14.1%;
  • 2001 and later – 65.8%;
  • date of construction unknown – 17.5%.

Siirt:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 7.4%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 20.4%;
  • 2001 and later – 62.9%;
  • date of construction unknown – 9.3%.

Muş:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 8.0%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 23.9%;
  • 2001 and later – 61.1%;
  • date of construction unknown – 6.9%.

Şanlıurfa:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 5.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 18.5%;
  • 2001 and later – 61.0%;
  • date of construction unknown – 14.9%.

Mardin:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 10.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 13.3%;
  • 2001 and later – 61.0%;
  • date of construction unknown – 15.2%.

Hakkâri:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 2.7%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 19.6%;
  • 2001 and later – 59.4%;
  • date of construction unknown – 18.3%.

Diyarbakır:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 6.5%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 26.6%;
  • 2001 and later – 58.1%;
  • date of construction unknown – 8.8%.

Kahramanmaraş:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 11.7%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 26.9%;
  • 2001 and later – 58.7%;
  • date of construction unknown – 3.3%.

Kahramanmaraş Earthquake: Figures and «Investment» Conclusions

Here are the provinces with the fewest buildings built in 2001 and later:

Zonguldak:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 22.1%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 36.1%;
  • 2001 and later – 28.2%;
  • date of construction unknown – 13.6%.

Bartın:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 19.9%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 39.1%;
  • 2001 and later – 33.7%;
  • date of construction unknown – 7.3%.

Sinop:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 21.3%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 26.5%;
  • 2001 and later – 36.0%;
  • date of construction unknown – 16.3%.

Rize:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 23.2%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 28.5%;
  • 2001 and later – 36.6%;
  • date of construction unknown – 11.7%.

Karabük:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 20.6%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 26.0%;
  • 2001 and later – 36.9%;
  • date of construction unknown – 16.5%.

Burdur:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 23.0%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 29.6%;
  • 2001 and later – 37.8%;
  • date of construction unknown – 9.7%.

Artvin:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 23.3%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 24.6%;
  • 2001 and later – 38.4%;
  • date of construction unknown – 13.7%.

Edirne:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 20.7%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 35.5%;
  • 2001 and later – 38.6%;
  • date of construction unknown – 5.2%.

Adana:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 13.0%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 34.8%;
  • 2001 and later – 38.7%;
  • date of construction unknown – 13.5%.

Afyonkarahisar:

  • built in 1980 and earlier – 14.0%;
  • between 1981−2000 – 29.4%;
  • 2001 and later – 39.0%;
  • date of construction unknown – 17.6%.

We should also add that in Istanbul Province, where seismologists predict a strong earthquake in the near future, the percentage of buildings built after 2001 is determined to be 45.7%.

Therefore, it is extremely important not only to check buildings for compliance with construction regulations but also to take care of insurance against natural disasters. On average, 54.7% of houses in Turkey have mandatory DASK insurance. The provinces with the highest rates are Bolu (86.9%), Düzce (86.2%), Yalova (83.2%), Sakarya (79%), Van (71%), Kocaeli (67.1%), and Bingöl (64%).

If we look at the regions, the Marmara Region ranks first, being “the most responsible”: 63% of buildings are insured. The Aegean Region (56%) and Eastern Anatolia Region (50.3%) are in second place. The Black Sea Region in this sense is the least insured one with only 46.1% of buildings.

Kahramanmaraş Earthquake: Figures and «Investment» Conclusions

What areas to choose when buying a home?

Although Istanbul is considered quite vulnerable to natural disasters, when it comes to purchasing houses, it still remains a favourite choice among many investors, especially foreign ones.

Therefore, we can recommend taking a good look at Başakşehir. After all, the number of earthquake-resistant houses in Istanbul’s Başakşehir district continues to grow day by day. The “risky housing stock” ratio, which was 50% in 2009, has been reduced to just 13% thanks to the efforts of local authorities.

This district is undergoing extensive urban transformation and improvement due to the risk of earthquakes and natural disasters.

Başakşehir Mayor Yasin Kartoğlu says that the goal is to further reduce the current “risky housing stock” rate to 5–8% as early as in the next two years.

Some of the best-reconstructed neighborhoods with the safest residential complexes are Ziya Gökalp, Şahintepe, and Güvercintepe. Examples of safe complexes are Kayapark Sakura Houses in Güvercintepe, the low-rise Burgaz Çarşı Evleri in Şahintepe, and others.

As for the resort locations, vacationers’ favorites, Antalya and Alanya, are quite resistant to earthquakes thanks to the very structure of the area. It may also be worth taking a closer look at the nearby Mersin—for the same reason. It was partially why Mersin Province was chosen for the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu.

Due to the city’s active development, many residential complexes here are brand-new. All that’s left to do is to check the documents for compliance with all seismic resistance requirements.

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